State of Elections

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Some will Win, Some will Lose, Some States are Born to Sing the Blues: The Coming Battle Over Reapportionment

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The stakes are incredibly high, reapportionment is looming, and recent data from Election Data Services shows that neither Democrats nor Republicans will be too pleased come next year. States which have been recently labeled as ‘safe Republican’ in Presidential elections will gain seats, but in more Democratically inclined areas. States recently labeled as ‘safe Democrat’ in Presidential elections will lose some seats. The biggest gain will be in Texas. Texas can expect to gain four House seats, at least some of which will be placed in locations more favorable to Democratic candidates. Meanwhile, New York, a state typically labeled as ‘safe Democrat’ in Presidential elections, will likely lose two House seats. In terms of multi-district moves, Florida will likely gain two seats and Ohio will likely lose two seats. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington will all likely gain a seat while Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania will all likely lose a seat.

Reapportionment is becoming a problem not only for certain Presidential candidates but also state and federal candidates, especially candidates in the Midwest where rapid population flight is decimating the electoral landscape. The close electoral math is mapping onto reapportionment strategy. Democrats and Republicans are locked in a mortal struggle to gain control of state houses and governor’s mansions across the nation, in anticipation of being able to influence the composition of both state legislatures and Congress over the next decade. [Read more…] about Some will Win, Some will Lose, Some States are Born to Sing the Blues: The Coming Battle Over Reapportionment

Weekly Wrap Up

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A 1996 Federal Appeals Court decision is forcing DC TV stations to air “anti-abortion porn.” Missy Smith is a candidate for the DC congressional seat, though many people claim that she is simply an “anti-abortion extremist, who has found a cheap way to get some truly disgusting images onto daytime and primetime TV.” The 1996 federal appeals court decision prevents any censorship of election ads. Prior to this case, FCC Chairman Mark Fowler advised that “The no censorship prohibition in Section 315 was intended to override the statutory prohibition against the broadcast of obscene or indecent materials that is etched in Section 1464 of the Criminal Code” (cited in Gillett Communications v. Becker, 1992). Since the U.S. Supreme Court recently struck down the FCC’s “decency” regulations, freeing the airwaves for uncensored material, so it’s unlikely that Becker will be overturned soon. In the meantime, the video has been removed from YouTube because it violates its policy on “shocking and disgusting content.”

The National Organization of Marriage (NOM), a group opposing gay marriage, is trying to fund an ad in support of Carl Paladino in NY while skirting the election law requiring them to reveal their donors.  Accordingly, they have asked a federal judge to declare NY Election Law §14-100.1 unconstitutional, alleging that it chills their freedom of speech.  NOM would fall under the reporting requirement because they have the goal of “seeing the success of defeat of…political principle[s].” [Read more…] about Weekly Wrap Up

Getting Carded: The Debate over Voter ID Law in Oklahoma

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On November 2, Oklahoma voters will confront a long list of state referendum items on which they may vote “yes” or “no.”  Second on the list—tucked between per-student educational spending and revised term limits—is State Question 746, which proposes to amend the state’s voter identification requirements.  Supporters tout the measure as a necessary and low-maintenance way to keep state elections honest.  After all, we require a photo ID for any number of mundane daily transactions, like writing a check or boarding an airplane.  However, a small but impassioned group of opponents argues that while seemingly harmless, in reality the voter ID requirement is the partisan enactment of a runaway legislature, and it threatens the most basic of Oklahomans’ constitutional protections.

If Oklahomans vote “yes” on State Question 746, then effective on July 1, 2011, every person appearing to vote in Oklahoma must first present (1) a state, tribal, or federal government-issued photo ID or (2) a voter identification card issued by the County Election Board.  All government-issued photo IDs must have expiration dates, and must not be expired on the date of the election, except for some identity cards issued to people over 65.  These requirements would apply to all in-person voting, including in-person absentee voting. [Read more…] about Getting Carded: The Debate over Voter ID Law in Oklahoma

The Tea Party and Voter Fraud

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In anticipation of the impending midterm elections, officials from various Tea Party affiliated groups are concerned that Republicans are losing elections because of voter fraud. Dick Armey, former Republican Congressman, recently asserted that up to 3% of the votes Democrat’s received in 2008 was illegitimate.

Ignoring for a moment that most voting experts refute these claims, the debate is interesting for several reasons. First, it shows the ever-increasing role the Tea Party plays in the Republican Party, a dynamic certain to have a huge impact in November. This broad discussion, however, has been extensively covered by the national news media, so we don’t need to get into it now.

Second, it illustrates the importance of conducting fair and open elections. If these claims have any basis in fact, the implications would be staggering.  The 2008 election cycle fundamentally altered the direction of local, state and national politics, as Democrats dominated, even in traditionally Republican districts. If for some reason that move was illegitimate, it would change our view of the direction American politics. Perhaps that is what these claims are really all about – the Tea Party questioning whether 2008 was really an indication that the country moving to the political left. [Read more…] about The Tea Party and Voter Fraud

Weekly Wrap Up

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Are red light cameras racist? According to American Traffic Solutions, they are. ATS opposes a ballot initiative to add red light cameras in Baytown, Texas, saying it will encourage conservative voters to come out in larger numbers for the November election and weaken the power of minority voters. A hearing is currently scheduled on a motion to stop the election.

Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley announced he will not be seeking re-election in February 2011. February’s election will be the first time in 64 years that an incumbent is not running for mayor in Chicago. One of the rules set by the Chicago Board of Elections for Mayoral candidates is that they must have lived in the city of Chicago for at least the last calendar year. Does this rule out Rahm Emanuel as a candidate? Read more about the rules to run for mayor here.

This report was recently released and may be interesting to anyone who wants to look at the “threat posed by money and special interest pressure on fair and impartial courts” (quote by William & Mary Chancellor Sandra Day O’Connor). The report looks at the past decade of judicial campaign spending and analyzes some the challenges and threats to our judicial system because of this funding.

The Georgia Supreme Court is looking at the constitutionality of the new voter identification law the Department of Justice approved two weeks ago. Georgia, along with Arizona, checks the citizenship of people who register to vote against Social Security and DMV records. Proponents claim that it blocks illegal immigrants from voting, while critics argue that it could hinder minorities who are legal citizens from voting. The Georgia Supreme Court heard arguments on Tuesday, September 7.

The Green Party in Arizona has filed suit against several state election officials, requesting that some of the nominees on their ballot be removed and to change an Arizona law that allows people to join a minor party’s ballot with only one write-in vote.  They allege that these nominees were recruited by Republicans to siphon votes away from the Democrat Party.  Steve May, on the Republican ballot, says that he recruited drifters and street performers in Tempe to run as Green Party candidates, but that they are part of a valid political movement.

Democrats in Vermont are facing a shortage of volunteers as they try to recount the results of the primary.  A number of the over 600 volunteers who originally signed up backed out when they found out they needed to commit to a full day of counting.

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